With wet tracks again the order of the day down south at both Randwick and Moonee Valley and with showers around, it is pretty impossible to try to work out what their final track rating - come race time - will be, so there is little sense previewing one of those two races.
So what I’ve done is preview another race in Brisbane, the Get Out Stakes which is a Class 6 race over 1400 metres.
Being the Get Out Stakes, it is the last leg of the Quadrella, Treble and Daily Double, so it is important to nail it accurately if punters are going to stay in contention with those exotic bet types.
Last week the OMW (no metropolitan win) fillies and mares races was accurately narrowed from 18 down to just four hopes and one of the selected gallopers – Aspiran – did the right thing by us.
My thoughts on Race 8 at Eagle Farm are:
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HORSE
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COMMENT
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ABSENT FRIENDS
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Went like a mule last start and he may need to strike a rain affected track to get back to the winners circle – and he’s unlikely to get that here. On song however he’s better than these horses though.
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EQUABLE
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Ran well last start after winning first up at Doomben. He’s not much good, but nor are the others in this race.
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BLACKWOODS CHOICE
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Hasn’t won for ages and has never won past 1200 metres, so he’s a distance query.
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BEYONCE’S STAR
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Blew like Cyclone Tracey last start when narrowly beaten at Caloundra. Not won past 1300 and only has an 11.4% win strike rate, so put a line through her. At this rate, the Clerk of Course’s pony is a chance.
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UNCLE JAN
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Has got beaten 32 lengths cumulatively in his last three starts and hasn’t started for nine or 10 weeks. He’ll be stronger than many of these at 1400 though if his trainer has been able to get the work into him, so I’d include him in all exotics and he’ll be a bolter.
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GENERAL PURPLE
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Runs a place 65% of the time, so consistency is his trademark. Each way chance again.
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EUREKA
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If the owners were Brisbane Sectional Times clients they’d know what I reckon is wrong with this horse, but they haven’t had time for work I recommended, so it will continue to race ordinarily.
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MAIN VEIN
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Hasn’t raced well for ages.
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NORTENO
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Not on last start ordinary effort.
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JOHNNIEONTHEROCKS
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I’d rather have a scotch on the rocks, but I guess everyone’s different. Missed the kick hopelessly last start at Caloundra so impossible to back with your hard earned until you see him do everything right.
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TOOTSIE ZYNSKY
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Her last run was quite good when she was trapped wide, but has a bad alley again here and hasn’t won past 1200 metres, so has nothing going in her favour.
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ACADEMY MAGIC
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Runs a nice race occasionally, but the facts and realities are that he has a 9.5% win strike rate, which means he has a proven 90.5% losing strike rate, so you can’t have him.
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USE TO BE A DANCER
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Runs on and is a rough place hope from the good draw.
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CONCLUSION: Back Absent Friends each way.
