With the Golden Slipper now only three weeks away, the action hots up at Randwick tomorrow with two important lead up races - namely the Skyline Stakes, a Group 3 race for colts and geldings – and the Sweet Embrace Stakes, a Group 3 race for fillies.
Both races are run at set weights and the cumulative 18 acceptors for both races will carry 55.5 kilograms.
The Skyline Stakes (colts and geldings) has attracted a disappointing acceptance of just seven runners – and the race features a short priced favourite in the shape of the Paul Messara trained Beneteau. He has a gear change of “winkers on first time” and a “lugging bit off first time”, but whether that will all be enough to make him hold his head straight - remains to be seen. Guess they can always go to blinkers for the Golden Slipper if the winkers don’t do their job, so he’s an interesting runner at the meeting.
The 11 acceptors that comprise the Sweet Embrace field combine to make it an interesting race - as it features four unbeaten fillies, namely Dove Lake, La Remlap, My Amelia and Miss Gai Flyer, so betting in the race is fraught with danger, for, as at today, we don’t know where those four sit in the general score of things.
My thoughts on the race are:
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HORSE
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COMMENT
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CRYSTAL LILY
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Melbourne filly in astute hands. Ordinary run in the Blue Diamond was followed up with an easy win seven days later - in good time. Her co-trainer Zahra said he thinks they stuffed up by giving the horse 24 days off into the Blue Diamond, so step one in resolving a problem is to acknowledge one exists in the first place – and as not many thoroughbred trainers admit they have made an error, that’s positive. She’s a speedy filly, but I think they’ll annoy the bejesus out of her here - and she goes the Sydney way for the first time. Additionally some first time horses at Randwick lose it when they hit the rise.
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AMBERS WALTZ
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I’ve correctly bagged her from day one, so I’m not going to change my opinion now. I believe she’s “not much good” – and she’s second favourite here and is highly rated in Golden Slipper markets.
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ZUTARA
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Was doing nothing in the run the other day until the jockey switched her to the extreme outside in the home straight, so it’s not rocket science to know that is the strategy that would give her her best chance at victory here, so her draw should be ideal.
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DOVE LAKE
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Undefeated - so I can’t bag her. She’s well bred and she’s in a good stable.
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LA REMLAP
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Led all the way in one of those woeful Canterbury night races and ran dreadful overall time. Nevertheless, as at today, she’s unbeaten.
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MAFIA MISS
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Couldn’t win this on exposed form.
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DIVORCES
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The topical tip of the week given that boring Clarke/Bingle saga. This filly had no luck the other day and ran on strongly late, so she’s an each way chance.
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MY AMELIA
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Another undefeated filly following a debut win at Kembla, so I can’t bag her.
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MISS GAI FLYER
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Ran big time at only run at Bendigo, given the “dead” track, so we haven’t found the bottom of her yet.
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CRIMSON RIBBON
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Has done positively nought in two runs to date - so better suited in the Dingo Blue Diamond in July.
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DAILY FLYER
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Would need to stage a huge form reversal to get in the mix here, but then again it’s a Cummings trained galloper, so that’s a distinct possibility.
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CONCLUSION: I think the pace will be electric as for starters Ms Waterhouse has two runners and the widely draw Miss Amelia could go forward - as she did on debut, which may happen to help ensure a genuine pace. Now if that happens, I think her stablemate Zutara could win the race and race her way into the Golden Slipper – so that’s a long way around of saying I’d back Zutara each way, as long as the track is good or dead when the race is run.
