I'm not going to be a happy camper if Gai Waterhouse (pictured not looking overly excited) cannot win with Montana Flyer tomorrow at Rosehill. Trainers and jockeys need to know that when the horses go up on Justracing - they are expected to win, no if's, but's, or maybe's, just like Star Witness at $13-odd last Saturday. I know what I'm doing - but do the trainers and jockeys?
Eight races are set down for decision at Rosehill tomorrow with the first set to jump at 12.37pm local time - and the last due to exit the barriers at 5.15 pm local time.
The day will should feature some good racing – and to that end there are three Group races set down for decision on the last Saturday of racing in summer - therefore the much awaited Sydney Autumn Carnival is just around the corner.
Field sizes have picked up on the day and only one race – Race 1 – has a small field, numbering seven, but the rest of the meeting will have three place dividends, with a minimum of eight acceptors in each race.
The three Group races that will be run tomorrow are the Group 3 Millie Fox Stakes (for fillies and mares – Race 4), the Group 2 Silver Slipper Stakes (for 2YO’s – Race 5) – and the Group 2 Hobartville Stakes (for 3YO’s – Race 6) – meaning that the three Group races will be run one after the other. As such only two of those three races will be Quadrella legs, which seems a bit Irish, as the good quality race, Race 4, would have been a better leg of a Quadrella than the last crappy race on the card featuring cart horses like My Sweet Cookie and horses awaiting entry into the “Grassy Knoll Equine Retirement Village” - like Mustard.
Earth to officials – if you had Race 4 as Race 8 you would have created a mammoth hold on the last race of the day for all the TAB’s around Australia - and last time I checked it was the TAB’s that were actually funding this game.
My thoughts on Race 4 at Rosehill are:
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HORSE
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COMMENT
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CHAKVETADZE
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Did a good job to gun down seasoned Open company sprinters last week with two kilos over the limit and has an each way chance here if she’s handled the trip to Sydney okay.
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STRAWBERRY FIELD
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A talented mare on a given day, however she hasn’t ever run a place at this track and she’s never run a place when second up, which she is here. Has a victory over world-beater mare, on a given day, Ortensia – and her run on resuming was fair, so she’s a place chance in this line up.
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MONTANA FLYER
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From the Waterhouse stable which has a poor record with short priced favourites, as has often been proven here via website articles. This mare hasn’t won for over a year - 4/10/08 – in fact. She also possesses a poor 14.20% win strike rate. In fairness though, she had a 33 week break since her last win, as she was retired to stud but didn’t get in foal, hence she is back at the racetrack.
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SUBTLE COVE
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Mixes form terribly - so I can’t have her.
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VINTAGE ROCK
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Has never finished further back than second when first up – in five lifetime attempts, but I reckon she will not run in the first two here.
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BEJEWELLED
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Her two runs back from a spell have been okay and she could run a place here off the good alley.
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MAGIC MODEL
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Dropping dramatically in distance so not for me.
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PURRPURRLENA
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Did nothing last Saturday, so should have no trouble repeating that lacklustre performance here.
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JESSICABEEL
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Hasn’t started for 41 weeks, so not likely.
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CONCLUSION: If Montana Flyer is going to in another race she’ll win this, so back her win only.
