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SYDNEY RACING PREVIEW |
By Phil Purser05/02/2010 |
 Cyril Small and the late Vic Rail (pictured) won three Orr Stakes (1988, 1989 and 1990) with champ Vo Rogue. They ran third in 1991 going for four in a row. Eight races are set down for decision at Rosehill tomorrow.
The field sizes are bigger than they have been in recent weeks, which is good to see, but the track will be rain affected, the extent of which won’t be known until race time tomorrow afternoon, so I wouldn’t be betting early at this meeting, due to both a) the high percentages in early markets and also b) the unknown state of the track at this point, with any accompanying bias.
So what I’ve decided to do for readers is to give the entire meeting a swerve - and to that end I’ve previewed the Orr Stakes at Caulfield.
The Orr Stakes is the main race at the Caulfield meeting tomorrow and is run at Group 1 level. As alluded to in the Justracing article tonight, there are two jackpots going on to the race.
The Orr Stakes is a time honoured event, first run way back in 1925. The Honour Roll is impressive and features such names as Lord (twice), Wenona Girl, Aquanita, Tobin Bronze, Winfreux, Black Onyx, All Shot, Manikato (thrice), At Talaq, Vo Rogue (thrice), Let’s Elope and Lonhro.
Run at weight-for-age, the Orr Stakes is worth $400,000 in prizemoney, with $240,000 going to the winner.
My thoughts on the race are:
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HORSE
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COMMENT
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VIEWED
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Has “the Bart factor” which you would think would help a horse in a Melbourne Cup, but it didn’t in this case, as he never looked likely in that race in 2009 – and clocked in seventh. Won the Caulfield Cup last year, when tipped here at big odds – and he’s a place chance here, resuming.
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SHOCKING
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This one’s got “the Kav factor,” whatever that does to a horse. Won a dreadful Melbourne Cup after going around the middle of the track, so either a) this horse is a champion, or b) the Melbourne Cup field was his namesake – shocking – so I’ll go with b) at this stage.
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ZIPPING
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Won at his last start prior to spelling, which Mark Read would write, to those who were smart enough to read his ideas, was an indicator that the horse should run a face fresh. Mark Read made squillions, so I’ll read what he writes regarding racing, as he’d have more idea than 99% of people who write on the subject. Therefore, using his theory, include this horse in all exotics, seeing he is resuming.
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SNIPERS BULLET
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Scratched.
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SIRMIONE
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Another one with “the Bart factor”, but even with that in his favour he’s only won four of 34 and he hasn’t won since 8/3/08 and that’s 23 months, so thank God he’s got “the Bart factor”.
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HEART OF DREAMS
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A track specialist who was scratched last start. One of two winning chances in the race.
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LITTORIO
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Hasn’t raced for 10 months, so impossible to have.
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DANZYLUM
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Is race fit and loves the track, but is hardly a weight-for-age horse. Could run in the first four at big odds though, simply due to the fact that at least he’s fit.
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RAFFAELLO
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Has a “tongue tie on first time” which is interesting, as he’s an enigma. The gear change suggests the horse is reasonably wound up, or you’d use it later in the preparation when you were ready to have a bet, so throw him into all exotics.
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TYPHOON TRACY
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A mare who has cheated many wins by leading easily and dictating, so I’ve never had any opinion of her - until she won the Tristarc on 17/10/09, then she followed that up with a demolition job of mares in the Myer Classic. Handles mares easily, but since she turned 4YO, she is yet to win against the boys, albeit she’s gone close a couple of times. Easily run down by Heart of Dreams in the Underwood at this track last September. I don’t like backing horses first up at 1400 metres in Saturday metropolitan races, but even I concede she’d have to be the horse to beat here, primarily because of the woeful record at 1400 of her opposition.
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CONCLUSION: Provided the track is “good” or “dead” for the meeting, the race has two winning chances – Typhoon Tracy and Heart of Dreams. Both like the track and they should run the quinella, but you can’t back Typhoon Tracy as she’s long odds on and always remember “odds on look on.” So to win on the race, I’d suggest readers take a First 4 of those two winning chances to win and run second – and to run third and fourth include Viewed, Zipping, Danzylum and Raffaello. The cost is $12 for 50 cent unit. If the track is “slow” or “heavy” I don’t want to know the race, as it will effectively mean it is further than 1400 metres. |
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